On 7 June Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO) released a report by Aurora Energy Research looking at the likelihood that coal plants might close earlier than their anticipated closure dates. There has been much speculation about this, along the lines that the bow wave of renewable investment currently underway will push the coal plant out of the market due to the renewables’ low marginal cost of operation. If this were to happen in a way which might leave load unserved, naturally this would be of concern to AEMO. The report concludes that, based on AEMO’s “base case”  assumptions, each of the coal plants currently operating has a positive net present value and would not be expected to close early on economic grounds (and might even close later). However, under other assumptions, Aurora found that some of the plants would have a ... Read more